Mildly Efficient (and Occasionally Rational)

How Would You React If Your Portfolio Fell By 30 Percent?

The biggest risk is not volatility, it’s the mismatch between the risk you say you can take and the risk you can actually live through.

Feb 18 • Seth Neumuller

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What’s Really Driving the Gold Rally?

What the data really say about the ability of dollar debasement, de-dollarization, central bank hoarding, and speculation to explain the recent surge in…

Feb 10 • Seth Neumuller

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January 2026

Is the AI Capex Boom Financially Sustainable?

How shrinking financial slack and long-dated leases underpin Nvidia’s current valuation

Jan 20 • Seth Neumuller

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Big Tech Is Becoming an Infrastructure Business

What AI Investment Means for Capital Allocation and Valuation

Jan 8 • Seth Neumuller

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December 2025

High Profit Margins Don't Justify High Stock Valuations

Why today’s elevated CAPE ratio must reflect expectations about the future, not record profitability

Dec 29, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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The Paradox of a Strong Labor Market

Why today’s rising unemployment rate reflects confidence, not contraction

Dec 18, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Are Small Cap Stocks Dead?

How Falling Small Cap Quality and a Winner-Take-Most Economy Broke the Small Cap Premium

Dec 7, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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November 2025

The Monthly Payroll Print Is Mostly Noise

Why investors should fade one of the most-watched economic indicators

Nov 25, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Why the U.S. Labor Market Is Much Harder to Break Than Investors Think

The shift from goods to services has raised the recession threshold

Nov 19, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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What the Data Really Say About the Job Market for New Grads

The latest data show a familiar seasonal pattern, not a white-collar recession

Nov 7, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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The Hidden Costs of Passive Investing

Buyer beware: some S&P 500 index funds are quietly draining investor returns

Nov 4, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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October 2025

What is the Neutral Rate of Interest?

Forget the models and look at what the data are telling us.

Oct 21, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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