Mildly Efficient (and Occasionally Rational)

Is the AI Capex Boom Financially Sustainable?

How shrinking financial slack and long-dated leases underpin Nvidia’s current valuation

Jan 20 • Seth Neumuller

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Big Tech Is Becoming an Infrastructure Business

What AI Investment Means for Capital Allocation and Valuation

Jan 8 • Seth Neumuller

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December 2025

High Profit Margins Don't Justify High Stock Valuations

Why today’s elevated CAPE ratio must reflect expectations about the future, not record profitability

Dec 29, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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The Paradox of a Strong Labor Market

Why today’s rising unemployment rate reflects confidence, not contraction

Dec 18, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Are Small Cap Stocks Dead?

How Falling Small Cap Quality and a Winner-Take-Most Economy Broke the Small Cap Premium

Dec 7, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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November 2025

The Monthly Payroll Print Is Mostly Noise

Why investors should fade one of the most-watched economic indicators

Nov 25, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Why the U.S. Labor Market Is Much Harder to Break Than Investors Think

The shift from goods to services has raised the recession threshold

Nov 19, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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What the Data Really Say About the Job Market for New Grads

The latest data show a familiar seasonal pattern, not a white-collar recession

Nov 7, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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The Hidden Costs of Passive Investing

Buyer beware: some S&P 500 index funds are quietly draining investor returns

Nov 4, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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October 2025

What is the Neutral Rate of Interest?

Forget the models and look at what the data are telling us.

Oct 21, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Where Did Labor’s Share of Income Go?

Labor’s share is shrinking, but not because profits are rising.

Oct 10, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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Credit Card Debt is Near an All-time High

But There is No Need to Panic

Oct 2, 2025 • Seth Neumuller

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