Mildly Efficient (and Occasionally Rational)

The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Work

Higher long-term rates are increasing the cost to finance the AI buildout, potentially curtailing excess demand without the need for tighter monetary…

Oct 2 • Seth Neumuller

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September 2026

Higher Yields Have Changed the Risk-Return Tradeoff for Bond Investors

The repricing that made bonds so painful to own coming out of the pandemic has made them substantially more attractive today

Sep 26 • Seth Neumuller

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August 2026

What If the Dragons Never Came to Paradise?

What ski towns gain from development, what they lose, and what happens when investment stops

Aug 12 • Seth Neumuller

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July 2026

Beyond the Federal Funds Rate

The Fed’s growing balance sheet tells a different story about how restrictive monetary policy really is.

Jul 2 • Seth Neumuller

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June 2026

The Hedging Value of Long-Term Treasuries Varies Over Time

What 2022 taught us about the diversification value of long-term U.S. government bonds.

Jun 2 • Seth Neumuller

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May 2026

Will Higher Energy Prices Lead to Persistent Inflation?

Money-supply data suggest this inflation scare is more likely to be transitory than persistent

May 14 • Seth Neumuller

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April 2026

An Update on the Job Market for New Grads

The data suggest AI is not crushing entry-level employment prospects, at least not yet

Apr 21 • Seth Neumuller

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Can an AI-Driven Productivity Boom Solve the U.S. Debt Problem?

The fiscal benefits of faster productivity growth may be smaller than they appear.

Apr 7 • Seth Neumuller

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March 2026

Is U.S. Government Debt on a Sustainable Path?

Debt is near historic highs and rising. Its sustainability hinges on how economic growth, real interest rates, and fiscal deficits evolve over time.

Mar 11 • Seth Neumuller

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February 2026

How Would You React If Your Portfolio Fell By 30 Percent?

The biggest risk is not volatility, it’s the mismatch between the risk you say you can take and the risk you can actually live through.

Feb 18 • Seth Neumuller

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What’s Really Driving the Gold Rally?

The data point to investor demand, not debasement fears or central bank purchases

Feb 10 • Seth Neumuller

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January 2026

Is the AI Capex Boom Financially Sustainable?

How shrinking financial slack and long-dated leases underpin Nvidia’s current valuation

Jan 20 • Seth Neumuller

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