Mildly Efficient (and Occasionally Rational)
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Where Did Labor’s Share of Income Go?
Labor’s share is shrinking, but not because profits are rising.
Oct 10
•
Seth Neumuller
Credit Card Debt is Near an All-time High
But There is No Need to Panic
Oct 2
•
Seth Neumuller
September 2025
The Triumph of the Quantity Theory of Money, 2020–2025
How far can a simple theory take you during a once-in-a-century monetary shock? Pretty far, it turns out.
Sep 28
•
Seth Neumuller
How Can the Stock Market Grow Faster than the Economy?
The answer is simple: shareholder yield is the wedge that lets real returns exceed real GDP growth
Sep 19
•
Seth Neumuller
The Real Cost of a Top-tier Liberal Arts Education
Tuition headlines miss the point. The real story is increasing levels of price dispersion and large subsidies, for everyone.
Sep 6
•
Seth Neumuller
August 2025
The Four Horsemen of the Labor Market
A deep dive into Austan Goolsbee's preferred metrics to evaluate the strength of the labor market
Aug 26
•
Seth Neumuller
Will AI alter the economy’s long run growth trajectory?
Unless this time is different, probably not
Aug 16
•
Seth Neumuller
The Fed Should Ignore Tariff-Induced Inflation
Sometimes, doing nothing is the most disciplined and effective response of all.
Aug 7
•
Seth Neumuller
Even at $950 per Share, Costco's Stock May Still be a Bargain
Costco’s Stock Sports a PE Ratio Similar to Nvidia, But That Doesn’t Mean It’s Overpriced
Aug 1
•
Seth Neumuller
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